TP DATES CP
Turning Point Dates for Capital Protection · Tail risk advisory for family offices and institutional investors
MMB Advisers Ltd · London · www.mmb-advisers.com · For professional investors only
ONE PAGER (28 Sep 2026)
Protecting capital against market meltdowns
An ex-ante tail risk service that flags high-risk windows before a drawdown, not after, so they can act in an orderly way instead of reacting under pressure.
The Problem
Upside participation remains attractive, but valuations are stretched, leadership is concentrated in a handful of mega-caps, and geopolitical shocks arrive with little warning. Most risk tools are reactive: they confirm the damage after it has happened. And losses compound:
The Solution
Each year MMB publishes, in advance, a calendar of 12 candidate turning-point dates grouped into two or three high-risk windows. The calendar is set at the end of the prior year and not revised (±1 day). Four proprietary indicators (built on behavioural greed–fear cycles and machine learning) cross-check each window; conviction is highest where they agree.
- Hedge overlay via liquid futures and options, up to three times a year; sizing and execution are the PM's decision
- No liquidation of core long-term holdings (unless specifically preferred by the PM)
The Evidence
Live forecasts: the 2026 calendar was published at the end of 2025.
| 2026 window | Dates | What happened | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 · Period 3 | 26 Feb – 25 Mar | Tariff-driven correction: S&P 500 c. -10%, DAX -13.6% | Captured |
| Q2 · Period 2 | 18 Jun – 19 Jul | Modest dip in the S&P 500 (-3.2%); sharper falls in the Nasdaq 100 (c. -10%) and KOSPI (c. -30%) | Timing right; size varied by market |
| Q4 · Period 1 | 24 Oct – 30 Nov | Flagged by the Dial, RF Oscillator and heatmap; November viewed as particularly severe | Highest conviction: ahead |
Back-tests: flagged the 2020 COVID crash window and the 2025 tariff correction (S&P 500 -21%). In 2022 the model caught the Q1 and September declines but missed the April–June fall; that limit is disclosed and has not been fitted away.
Who Is Behind It
Marco Bianchi, PhD · Founder, MMB Advisers Ltd
- 30+ years in quantitative research and risk management; PhD in Statistics & Econometrics, London School of Economics (European Doctoral Programme)
- Former Bank of England, Barclays Capital (Director) and Citi (VP); co-manager of a $250M long/short European equity fund at Thames River Capital
- Eurohedge Award winner (2003) and runner-up (2006) for systematic strategies: 20% return / 0.50% max drawdown (Newman & Ragazzi, 2003); 18.82% / 2.04% (Thames River, 2006)
- Published in the American Economic Review, Journal of Applied Econometrics and Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
NEXT STEP
Request a confidential briefing, including the current Q4 2026 outlook.
Full methodology and track record
MMB Advisers Ltd, registered in England & Wales (No. 07722496). MMB Advisers is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Its research is general and impersonal, is provided on the same basis to all subscribers, does not take account of any recipient's circumstances and does not constitute a personal recommendation. Hedging, sizing and execution decisions remain with the client and its regulated advisers. For professional investors only; not for retail clients. This document is for information only. Back-tested and illustrative results are hypothetical and do not represent actual client outcomes. Past performance is not a guide to future results.